3 January 2018
3 January 2018
HY Corporate Credit
HY Multi Sector,Medre Cable & Satellite
Consumer confidence continues to build. Exponditures to follow?
The combination of low unemployment, positive financial asset performance
and a solid outlook for both U.S. and global growth has benefited consumer
confidence expectations. However, real consumer expenditures remains
relatively stagnant as real disposable income growth has been modest through
9/30/17.
IFigure 8: Consumer confidence expectations high
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Retail still challenged from secular headwinds Figure 9: PCE and income growth less pronounced
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Online growth remains the primary disruptor for traditional brick & mortar
E-commerce is an increasing contributor to overall retail growth in the U.S.,
and we expect the trend to continue as consumers increasingly turn to mobile
devices for shopping needs.
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Online sales excluding travel and auctions, measuring all worldwide buying on
U.S. sites by computers and excluding mobile, tablet and shared devices,
increased 17.5% in November, up from 15.5% in October. Similarly, apparel &
accessories online sales growth accelerated to 23.4% in November from 20.0%
in October. As strong as the figures are, we believe they potentially understate
online growth. Mobile, including smartphones and tablets, represented 33.1%
(24.1% smartphone; 9.0% tablets) of Cyber Monday revenue, according to
Adobe. Smartphone revenue grew 39.2% YoY.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Please see DB Equity
Research Analysts Paul
Musson's 12,21 Retail Trends
Chartbookand Mike Baker's
12/17Unwrannino the Key
The/nester 201$ report for
additional thoughts and data
points on the state of the U.S.
retail market
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