26 September 2016
26 September 2016
FX Forecasts and Valuations: Don't throw in the towel
Figure 14: EURIGBP: Sterling remains expensive but
within the band
10
0.9
08
06 ••• V !'•
07
00 •,.. I- 05 • a.•••••
EUR/G8P
0.4 — — - 20% Rind 0.4
PPP ELIR1G84
0.3 44=
73 77 „f. 1.0
0.9
81 85 89 93 97
tarn MIX fen* Dear f 0.8
07
01 05 09 13 0.3 Figure 15: EUR/SEK. SEK is very cheap vs. the euro
12
11
10
9
8
7 ••%...r.4,.9
6
5 es414:114. '".
4
73 77 IrrI 12
11
10
9
7
6
— — — 20% Bend I 5
..-... PPP EURISEK
81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13
Sower:01 Of Sisk Oaristan
Figure ICS: ELM/CHF: CHF is expensive against the euro Figure 17: EUFI/CAD: CAD is cheap against the euro
4.0
3.6
3.0
2.5 •
2.0 ..4%.%
1.5 - EUR/CHF
— — —20% Band
PPP EUR/CHF
2.0
1 1 1.5
1.0 -- - -T
--- 1.0
73 77 81 85 89 93 97 01 05 09 13
Swot 08 Frilliest:ft are_ 4.0 19
3.0 ^r.• 15
16
2.5 P ityV
0.9
73 77 81 #.4 19
1 7
IW
t1 ry _13
EURCAD
--- 20% Band
PPP EYR
85 89 93 97 01 06 09 13
34taa 08 C Masa Ostessoant 1.1
0.9 J
Figure IS: AUD/NZD: NZD is near its fair value against Figure IS: CAD/NZD: NZD remains expensive against
AUD
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1),-.11\Stkilfa
0.8 - - - 20% 81411 D,Nia)AU
0.8
PPP AUDi14213 0.6 0.8
73 77 81 85 89 83 97 01 05 09 13 1.0 1.0
lane 08/44aranth, Oateari•et
Page 14 CAD, approaching the 20% band.
1.6
1.2 VII 1.2
1.0
IIF
t
,rette.0.s
06
0.4 —20% bend
— PPP CAD/NZD
73 77 81 85 89 93
Mn.M a.va SO Obsedt Dagrent 97 01 05 09 13 1.8
1.4
12
1.0
08
0.6
0.4
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
CONFIDENTIAL — PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
CONFIDENTIAL DB-SDNY-0118612
SDNY_GM_00264796
EFTA01458618