Significant progress toward the Fed's full employment objective
Significant progress toward the Fed's full employment objective
and robust momentum justify a Fed funds rate well above zero
US economy is near full employment, confidence is high and leading indicators are supportive, even if some measures of slack remain high
• Leading Indicators
7-8 8. Firms unable to fill job openings
near 15-year high — labour market is
tight for small businesses
7 Initial claims near 40+ year
lows; signal further progress on
unemployment is likely
forthcoming 1 Payroll employment growth
has averaged 240k per month
over past 18 months, near the
fastest pace since 2000
6 Work part time for economic
reasons remains elevated as
many would like a full-time job
but have settled for part-time
work — slack remains
Dec-07 (pre-crisis. seen
as a solid reference)
Dec-09 (worst of the
crisis)
Current
Reference Points
c ltiliSatiOn 5 Unemployment at 5.0%, has
\5-6 fallen to post-crisis low, and within
the range the Fed believes will
begin to lead to higher inflation
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high levels, suggesting
employers are looking to
expand employment Employer Behaviour
1-2
3. Hiring plans over the next 3
months for small businesses are
near pre-crisis levels —
employment growth should
remain robust
4. Quits: leading indicator for
wage growth — more people
quitting means they can find
higher paying jobs elsewhere Confidence
3-4
Ouhsord movement if the wafer than denotes improvement Source. Hover Ana/tics, BLS, National
Federation of Independent Businesses. Department of Latour. Deutsche Bank Research 17
CONFIDENTIAL - PURSUANT TO FED. R. CRIM. P. 6(e)
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