8 February 2016
8 February 2016
US Equity Insights
(Figure 1: Summary statistics on 40 2015 EPS reporting
4016 Summary (Based on reported companies)
% of EPS Cos EPS I% of co's) EPS EPS
reported reported % beat % miss surprise (%: WY MI
S&P 600
S&P 500 ex. Financials
S&P 500 ex. Energy
S&P ex. Tech
S&P ex. Energy & Financials
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Eno's)),
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Information Technology
Materials
Telecommunication Services
Utilities
Score letS Daisa,. Sent Sales Mar co's) Sales Sales
% beat % miss surmise I% y/y (%)
79.2% 317 511% 24% 1.3% -2.4% 33% 46% -0.4% -3.4%
77.4% 246 61% 22% 2.6% -4.7% 33% 49% •0.5% -3.9%
78.9% 296 61% 22% 2.1% 4.2% 33% 45% -0.5% 1.8%
76.3% 270 57% 27% 0.0% 4.5% 31% 49% -0.5% 4.6%
76.9% 226 64% 19% 3.6% 3.2% 32% 48% -0.6% 2.0%
47.7% 36 67% 26% 4.3% 20.9% 31% 56% 2.1% 5.7%
55.1% 21 52% 24% 2.5% -2.0% 10% 62% -3.6% -2.9%
93.8% 21 33% 62% -21.1% -71.6% 43% 57% 0.4% -32.9%
87.3% 71 52% 31% -3.5% 7.7% 36% 34% -0.3% 0.7%
82.3% 37 73% 8% 6.2% 9.3% 51% 27% co% 19.1%
92.7% 52 63% 25% 0.1% -1.4% 27% 54% -1.8% -7.4%
87.9% 47 68% 6% 4.8% 0.6% 45% 28% 0.1% -1.7%
79.1% 18 72% 11% 11.9% -20.3% 6% 83% -3.3% -16.5%
96.6% 3 33% 33% 0.8%21.2% 33% 67% -0.0% 12.9%
47.9% 11 18% 55% -5.2% -4.8% 27% 64% -8.1% -16.7%
IFigure 2: Fishhooks: S&P 500 quarterly btm-up EPS
Revisions
ar
32
30
25
24
22+S&P 500 sunny trm-up EPS manes
Sever $15. Onset, 804 ten
ou ..e, r‘a,r1V 406
mou a:\ t 34Figure 3: Revision to EPS during the calendar quarter vs.
EPS beat during reporting (1O11 - now)
a I ■ Arg 0011.3015y 3 3%
2% 9
a
a.
• .10% Mg: 40%
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•193 dung pd.. es newsy
San* *ES. Dana., Sea
S&P 500 Energy capex was cut by over $60bn or —27% in 2015 and is expected to be
cut by another $45bn or 27.5% in 2016.
'Figure 4: S&P 500 Energy capex
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
—S&P 500 (ibs) Energy (rhs)
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Sotect Daisen• Eine. Corevarat. Corr., an
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Page 3
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