CDR offtake options and prepayment discounts by pathway FIGURE 12 As production scales and technologies mature, cost sensitivity is expected to decrease, particularly for emerging pathways. Additionally, larger purchase volumes tend to reduce per-tonne costs, underscoring the importance of market demand and economies of scale in driving more competitive pricing. Key factors influencing CDR cost and price trajectories Biochar and BECCS have the most predictable cost trajectories, benefiting from existing supply chains and infrastructure. DAC cost reductions remain highly uncertain, as they rely on a mix of technological breakthroughs, energy costs and policy support. ERW costs may fall, but the pace depends on logistics improvements and MRV standardization rather than core process improvements. Prepayment vs. offtake contracts significantly affect pricing. Prepaid contracts can lower per-tonne costs for DAC and BECCS, while payment on delivery agreements provide greater pricing stability but may lead to slightly higher costs. Purchase volume plays a crucial role in pricing. Large-scale offtake agreements can drive down per-tonne costs, particularly for high capex pathways such as DAC.DAC BECCS Biochar ERW100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Options 2026–2030 Options beyond 2030 Discount: 50% prepayment Discount: 100% prepayment Removal pathwayShare/discount (%) Notes: The CDR market is expanding its commercial toolkit beyond standard purchase agreements. Around 80% of projects surveyed are willing to offer buyers option contracts on near-term vintages (2026–2030), rising to 87% for credits beyond 2030 reflecting project developers’ desire to lock in demand amid uncertainty about how the market will evolve. For buyers willing to commit capital early, prepayments offer meaningful savings: paying 50% upfront yields discounts of 3–9%, while full prepayment unlocks 7–14% off the purchase price. Together, these mechanisms give buyers new ways to manage cost and secure future supply, while providing projects with the financing they need to scale. Source: World Economic Forum Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies: Market Overview and Offtake 20

Carbon Dioxide Removal Technologies 2026