Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

37Chief Economists Outlook International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025a). World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025: Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/ WEO/Issues/2025/01/17/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2025?cid=ca- com-compd-pubs_belt. International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2025b). World Economic Outlook, April 2025: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts. https://meetings.imf.org/en/IMF/Home/Publications/ WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025. Ipsos. (2025). March 2025: Consumer confidence down globally as three sub-indices decline significantly. https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-consumer-confidence- march-2025. JP Morgan. (2024). How AI can boost productivity and jump start growth. https://privatebank.jpmorgan.com/nam/en/insights/markets-and-investing/ideas- and-insights/how-ai-can-boost-productivity-and-jump-start-growth. Lewis, L. & Dempsey, H. (2025, 19 March). Trump tariff uncertainty pushes Bank of Japan to hold interest rates. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/79f17527-7f56- 4030-8f51-1abd0f7718d3. Li, Q. (2025). Report on the Work of the Government. Delivered at the Third Session of the 14th National People’s Congress of the People’s Republic of China on March 5, 2025. Government of the People’s Republic of China. https://english.www.gov.cn/ news/202503/12/content_WS67d17f57c6d0868f4e8f0c0d.html. Maruthavanan, T. (2025, 9 May). The AI cost collapse is changing what’s possible—with massive implications for tech startups. Fortune. https://fortune.com/2025/04/04/ai- cost-collapse-tech-startups/. McLeary, P ., Gould, J. & O’Brien, C. (2025, 9 May). Trump, Hegseth promise record $1 trillion Pentagon budget. POLITICO. https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/07/ hegseth-trump-1-trillion-defense-budget-00007147. Millard, R. (2025). Brent crude dips below $60 per barrel for first time in 4 years. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/c10544d9-866e-4d28-9e60-842c019cb9ff. Al Omran, A. (2025, 21 April). Saudi businesses turn to solar power as kingdom cuts energy subsidies. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/f6dc634b-6ad8-4011-999a- a3d966542446. Peel, M. & Murgia, M. (2024, 9 October). Google DeepMind duo share Nobel chemistry prize with US biochemist. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ba14c3a1- ac8e-42b9-a5ba-9d73cc1fff4c.