Chief Economists Outlook May 2025

38Chief Economists Outlook Reuters. (2025). China to set up national venture capital guidance fund, state planner says. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-set-up-national-venture-capital- guidance-fund-state-planner-says-2025-03-06/. S&P Global. (2025a). PMI, Purchasing Managers’ Index – Manufacturing, Services. https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/research-analysis/us-business- growth-hits-lowest-since-late2023-confidence-slumps-and-prices-move-higher- Apr25.html. S&P Global. (2025b). Sovereign Debt 2025: Commercial Debt Will Reach A New Record High Of $77 Trillion. https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/research/articles/250304- sovereign-debt-2025-commercial-debt-will-reach-a-new-record-high-of-77- trillion-13427943. S&P Global & HSBC. (2025, 23 April). HSBC Flash India PMI. https://www.pmi.spglobal. com/Public/Home/PressRelease/b1696a40bdd14bb58cf3085ef8c08024. Sandlund, W., Kelly, M., Wells, P ., White, A. & Munir, Z. (2025, 12 May). US-China trade war as it happened: Washington and Beijing agree to reduce tariffs; S&P 500 notches third-biggest jump past of 5 years. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/ content/985a553c-d98f-47db-bf03-41e65d336675. Sevastopulo, D., Leahy, J. Foster, P . (2025, 12 May). Who blinked first? How the US and China broke their trade deadlock. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ a541bd15-86b2-4e20-868b-c9ecca57ec09. Sheppard, D., Parker, G., Foster, P . & Reed, J. (2025, 6 May). UK and India strike trade deal after three years of talks. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/8ffeea3a- cb69-4290-8910-cbb0bba7e907. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). (2025). Unprecedented rise in global military expenditure as European and Middle East spending surges. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2025/unprecedented-rise-global-military- expenditure-european-and-middle-east-spending-surges. Smith, G., Zhuo, T. & Wilhelm, B. (2025, 20 March). FirstFT: Nvidia to spend billions in US as it shifts chip supply chain from Asia. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/ ccca80da-e32f-4c48-84e3-a29ed6ad2f18. Smith, A., Crofton, W., Vincent, J., Hawkins, O., et al. (2025, 14 April). Trump tracker: US tariffs. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/2c473393-35fb-479d-8bba- 236a1a98087c. Storbeck, O. & Smith, I. (2025, 17 April). ECB cuts rates to 2.25% amid Trump trade war. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/70934d09-dfa5-4ac0-b5a2- 2d7ae39c8d95.