Climate Foresight 2025

To achieve sustainable futures, we build on the AAA Framework's capabilities and foundations. We then focus on enacting effective leverage points to drive transformative change whilerecognizing the positive potential of inflection points. 1. AAA Framework The AAA framework introduced by Spitz (2020) explores the role of Antifragile, Anticipatory, andAgile principles in facilitating robust futures intelligence. Spitz (2020) and Spitz and Zuin (2021) argue that the AAA f ramework is necessary to achieve sustainable value creation, including systems innovations in climate technology (see Figure 1and Figure 2): ● Antifragile: Antifragile foundations can support innovative mindsets and systems that thrive in uncertainty and complexity, benefiting from shocks, randomness, and volatility. Spitz (2020) borrows the term “antifragile” from Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Taleb 2012, 6). ● Anticipatory: Anticipatory thinking can emb ed c limate foresight among commercial and policy actors, driving sustainable futures by preparing for next-order implications, unexpected consequences, and opportunities. ● Agility: Actors can develop adaptive decision-making through feedback loops that reconcile the short-term discovery process of emergent solutions with longer-term complex challenges and visioning. Climate Foresight: Transforming the Voluntary Carbon Markets, by Roger Spitz & James Balzer 11 © Disruptive Futures Institute, March 2025