Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 2025

1. Kearney analysis based on voluntarily announced 2030 SAF commitments from the following carriers: Scandinavian Airlines/SAS (~35%), FedEx (30%), UPS (30%), DHL (30%), Airbus (30%), Norwegian (20%), Ryanair (12.5%), American Airlines (10%), Delta Air Lines (10%), Air France-KLM (10%), International Airlines Group/IAG (10%), Southwest Airlines (10%), Qatar Airways (10%), All Nippon Airways/ANA (10%), Cathay Pacific (10%), Japan Airlines/JAL (10%), Qantas (10%), JetBlue (10%), Alaska Airlines (10%), WizzAir (10%), TAP Air Portugal (10%), Virgin Atlantic (10%), Finnair (10%), Hawaiian Airlines (10%), SkyWest Airlines (10%), United Airlines (10%), Lufthansa Group (5%), Singapore Airlines (5%), Malaysia Airlines (5%), Aeromexico (5%), Philippine Airlines (5%), GOL Airlines (1% -2025), AirCanada (1% -2025). 2. US Energy Information Administration. (2024). International Energy Outlook 2023 – Table: Total commercial jet fuel use by region. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/data/browser/#/?id=67-IEO2023&cases=Reference&sourcekey=0. 3. The US’s SAF Grand Challenge of 3 billion gallons (9 Mt) annual SAF production in the US is taken as a consumption target. 4. Sources: –Argus. (2024). South Korea to require use of SAF for flights from 2027. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and- insights/latest-market-news/2603345-south-korea-to-require-use-of-saf-for-flights-from-2027. –Argus. (2024). Indonesia to require SAF for flights from 2027. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/ latest-market-news/2609725-indonesia-to-require-saf-for-flights-from-2027. –Clean 50. (2024). Canada’s first Sustainable Aviation Fuels Roadmap. https://clean50.com/projects/canadas-first-sustainable-aviation-fuels-roadmap/. –Ministry of Transport, Malaysia. (2024). Malaysia Aviation Decarbonisation Blueprint. https://www.mot.gov.my/en/Pages/Aviation/MADBlueprint%20BI%20FA.pdf. –Australian Government. (2024). Aviation White Paper: Towards 2050. https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/awp-aviation-white-paper.pdf. –Argus. (2024). Japan aims to tighten SAF supply regulations. https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news-and-insights/ latest-market-news/2582074-japan-aims-to-tighten-saf-supply-regulations. 5. Based on analysis by Kearney, this figure of 4.4 Mt annual SAF production capacity by the end of 2024 comes from a total renewable fuel capacity of 25 Mt/a at an average SAF yield of 22%, assuming a plant utilization of 80%. This figure is very close to SkyNRG’s figure of 4.5 Mt of “global SAF capacity announcements” for 2024, cited on p.6 of its Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market Outlook, June 2024 Update, https://skynrg.com/thank-you-saf-market-outlook-2024/. 6. S&P Global. (2025). Biofuels Value Chain Service. https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/products/biofuels-value-chain-service.html. 7. U.S. Department of Energy. (2020). Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Review of Technical Pathways. p.18. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2020/09/f78/beto-sust-aviation-fuel-sep-2020.pdf. 8. Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). (2018). OECD DAC Blended Finance Principles. https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-dac-blended-finance-principles_dc66bd9c-en.html. 9. Department for Transport, Government of the United Kingdom. (2024). Sustainable aviation fuel initiatives. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/sustainable-aviation-fuel-initiatives. 10. Department for Transport, Government of the United Kingdom. (2022). Advanced Fuel Funds: Guidance document for applicants. Version 1.1. https://www.ricardo.com/media/ea3ldpe2/aff-guidance-v11.pdf. 11. U.S. Department of Energy, Loan Programs Office. (December 2024). Monthly Application Activity Report. https://www.energy.gov/lpo/monthly-application-activity-report. 12. U.S. Department of Energy, Loan Programs Office. (2024). Application Process. https://www.energy.gov/lpo/application-process. 13. According to a 2024 ICCT study, all new aircraft rolled out by the mid-2030s would have to have net-zero emissions and aircraft OEMs will need to dramatically increase investment in zero-emission propulsion. Source: International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT). (2024). Lifetime emissions from aircraft under a net-zero carbon budget. https://theicct.org/publication/lifetime-emissions-from-aircraft-under-a-net-zero-carbon-budget-jul24/. 14. World Economic Forum. (2024). Scaling Clean Technology Offtakes: A Corporate Playbook for Net Zero. https://www.weforum.org/publications/scaling-clean-technology-offtakes-a-corporate-playbook-for-net-zero/. 15. Project SkyPower. (2024). Accelerating the take-off for e-SAF in Europe. https://project-skypower.org/sites/default/ files/2024-10/Project%20SkyPower%20Insights%20Report%20October%202024_final.pdf. 16. Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials (RSB). (2023). RSB Book & Claim Manual. https://rsb.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/RSB-PRO-20-001-001-RSB-Book-and-Claim-Manual-3.0.pdf . 17. Sustainable Aviation Buyers Alliance (SABA). (2024). SABA Announces Historic Agreements to Purchase Sustainable Aviation Fuel Certificates. https://flysaba.org/2024/04/17/sustainable-aviation-buyers-alliance-announces-historic- agreements-to-purchase-sustainable-aviation-fuel-certificates-to-grow-investment-in-clean-fuel-technologies/. Endnotes Financing Sustainable Aviation Fuels 42