Endnotes 1. For brevity, “short- to medium-term” is henceforth referred to as “short-term” in this report. Both refer to the 2027 time horizon. 2. Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Number of Conflicts 1975-2023, https://ucdp.uu.se/. 3. The interconnections maps in this report are not focused on a specific time horizon. 4. Saran, Samir, “5 geopolitical questions for 2025”, World Economic Forum, 5 November 2024, https://www.weforum.org/ stories/2024/11/5-geopolitical-questions-for-2025/. 5. Mosely-Tate, Ryan, “How generative AI is boosting the spread of disinformation and propaganda”, MIT Technology Review, 4 October 2023, https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/10/04/1080801/generative-ai-boosting- disinformation-and-propaganda-freedom-house/. 6. World Economic Forum, Chief Risk Officers Outlook, 14 October 2024, https://www.weforum.org/publications/chief-risk- officers-outlook-october-2024/. 7. Feingold, Spencer and Simon Torkington, “What is a geopolitical recession and how could we avoid one?”, World Economic Forum, 13 May 2024, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/05/what-is-a-geopolitical-recession-and-are-we- heading-into-one/. 8. United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, Fact Sheet, 31 December 2016, https://peacekeeping.un.org/sites/default/ files/bnote1216.pdf. 9. United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, Global Peacekeeping Data, 31 August 2024, https://peacekeeping.un.org/en/ data. 10. Council on Foreign Relations, The UN Security Council, 9 September 2024, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/ un-security-council#:~:text=The%20UN%20Security%20Council%20is,twenty%2Dfirst%2Dcentury%20 challenges.&text=The%20fifteen%2Dmember%20UN%20Security,address%20threats%20to%20international%20 security. 11. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Military Expenditure Database, accessed November 2024, https://view. officeapps.live.com/op/view.aspx?src=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.sipri.org%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2FSIPRI-Milex- data-1948-2023.xlsx&wdOrigin=BROWSELINK. 12. The United Nations Office at Geneva, How UN delivers life-saving aid amid crises, 12 October 2023, https:// www.ungeneva.org/en/news-media/news/2023/10/86231/explainer-how-un-delivers-life-saving-aid-amid- crises#:~:text=The%20UN%20provides%20food%20and%20assistance%20to%20more. 13. D’Silva, Brian and Abir Ibrahim, “Food security: Can war-torn Sudan recover and help address the global food crisis?”, World Economic Forum, 19 March 2024, https://www.weforum.org/stories/2024/03/sudan-agriculture-world-food-crisis- solution/#:~:text=With%20its%20large%20landmass%20and,well%20as%20sugarcane%20and%20sorghum. 14. UNHCR – The UN Refugee Agency, Refugee Data Finder, accessed January 2025, https://www.unhcr.org/refugee- statistics. 15. Luursema, Ilias, “The African Union: Achievements, Challenges, and the Future of Africa”, The Collector, 19 February 2023, https://www.thecollector.com/african-union/. 16. Global Trade Alert, New Interventions per year, adjusted for reporting lags, https://www.globaltradealert.org/global_ dynamics/year-from_2023/year-to_2023/day-to_1129. 17. Evenett, Simon J., “Tariff Scenarios for 2025: Triggers and Fallout for Trade & FDI”, Zeitgeist Series Briefing 45, Global Trade Alert, 19 November 2024, https://www.globaltradealert.org/reports/. 18. World Bank Group database, see https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.GSR.TOTL.CD?locations=CN. 19. European Commission, EU imposes duties on unfairly subsidised electric vehicles from China while discussions on price undertakings continue [Press release], 29 October 2024, https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ ip_24_5589. 20. Evenett, Simon J., “Attracting the ire of the next US administration: A red flag analysis based on recent policy & market outcomes”, Zeitgeist Series Briefing 40, Global Trade Alert, 5 November 2024, https://www.globaltradealert.org/reports/. 21. Ibid. 22. Aiyar, Shekhar, et al., Geoeconomic Fragmentation and the Future of Multilateralism, IMF Staff Discussion Notes, International Monetary Fund (IMF),15 January 2023, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Staff-Discussion-Notes/ Issues/2023/01/11/Geo-Economic-Fragmentation-and-the-Future-of-Multilateralism-527266. 23. Global Trade Alert, Policy Instruments Used, 2020-24, https://www.globaltradealert.org/global_dynamics/area_all/year- from_2020. 24. Aiyar, et al., 2023. 25. For details, see: https://www.makeinindia.com/. 26. Ilyina, Anna, Ceyla Pazarbasioglu and Michele Ruta, “Industrial Policy is Back But the Bar to Get it Right Is High”, IMF Global Risks Report 2025 40