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The power principle Will your electricity be on come January 1? By Erik J. Martin It's a cold and blustery New Year's midnight as you leave the party, wiping the pesky blowing snow from your eyes. Shortly after getting into your car, the streetlights flicker and suddenly snuff out. You drive down blackened streets, anxious to get home safely. Somehow you make it home and step into a chilly, dark house. The light switches are dead. You lock all the doors and windows, wrap blankets tightly around yourself and slump into a corner in a state of surrendered disbelief, watching the puffs of vapor escape from your exhaling mouth. Sound like a passage from an imaginative suspense novel? Think again, power-dependent reader. The climate-challenged protagonist described above could be you in a non-fiction nightmare come New Year's Day. At least, that's what some doomsayers skeptical of the electric utility companies' efforts to fix their Y2K bugs would have you believe. To grasp the extent of the potential problem requires a little understanding of how power juice is caboosed. The nation's electrical infrastructure is comprised of three major power grids that are interconnected. Utilities today regularly purchase from and sell power to each other via interconnected lines, thanks to a computer-driven system that is highly automated. Hence, a major problem with one such line can instantly create disturbances in other parts of the system. Many power-system device controllers also contain circuit boards -- each of which can contain up to 50 embedded chips. These chips are vulnerable to the Y2K bug, but can't be reprogrammed to negate potential Y2K glitches because they contain computer programs literally burned into the silicon. What's more, power plants that run digital control systems using time-dependent algorithms may also be at risk for the millennium bug. Additionally, built-in clocks -- which may also be susceptible to Y2K date problems -- used to control many dispatch, control and monitoring functions can be found in the hundreds of bulk control centers that run the power grids. As if that weren't enough to worry about, backup power supplies are also becoming less available due to greater demand for spare power. Thus, if one region of the country is hit hard by Y2K, the possibility exists that it may not be able to draw reserve power from other areas of the country. The Amish must be getting a lot of mileage out of this joke that is Y2K. No wonder sales of battery generators, power-producing solar panels, domestic hydro systems and wind generators are through the roof. If you didn't know that the possible end of the world was coming, you'd think the kilowatt-sucking masses had suddenly turned green with ecology consciousness. Ironically, though Canada (being a colder climate and larger territory than the United States) uses one-third more electricity that its neighbor to the south, a recent Canadian utilities report announced that there is no danger of a power outage throughout Canada after midnight on New Year's Eve.Canadian utility-industry representatives even went so far as to say that their country is better prepared for Y2K than the United States. Watch out, Uncle Sam - you've got maple sap all over your face. So much for the bad news. The good news is that the chances of nightmare scenarios like the aforementioned happening are lessening. The North American Electric Reliability Council ran a Y2K drill in April to gauge the electric power industry's ability to control the United States' and Canada's power grids without data and voice communications. The results showed that all systems are go, despite a few minor glitches. However, more answers will come September 9, when the actual power systems will be tested during a more comprehensive industry-wide drill that coincides with the date (9-9-99) when computer systems worldwide could skip a beat. Last September, NERC announced that unless Y2K efforts improve, the nation's power grid could be vulnerable to "serious disruptions." That assessment improved by January, when NERC reported that there probably will be "only minimal impact" on electricity production and distribution, thanks to the Y2K testing and fixing efforts of utility companies across the nation. The Edison Electric Institute, which represents about 75 percent of the nation's electricity suppliers, also insists that its member utilities will complete their Y2K tests and repairs by June 30. Breathing easier yet? One thing going for the power companies: at least they have time to prepare for this mother of all electrical maladies. Utility experts say that storms actually pose more danger because of their unpredictability and sudden onset. My advice? Flick your switches and don't worry too much. It can't hurt to prepare yourself for January 1st worst-case scenarios by stocking up on a little extra canned food, water, blankets, candles and the like. But for better power-conscious peace of mind, don't rely on Uncle Sam or NERC to be your utility watchdog. Contact your utility companies and ask about their efforts to achieve Y2K compliance. Inquire about their current progress. (Realize, however, that power companies in some states may not be required to reveal their Y2K numbers to the public.) Contact your local Congressmen and ask them to put the heat on utility companies that are lagging behind or aren't up front about their Y2K efforts. The electric companies may have the juice, but, in the words of 1960s scounterculture ideologists, "power to the people." 1999 Thomson Target Media Erik J. Martin is a freelance journalist who has penned a regular multimedia column for Screen Magazine and has written for a variety of other publications, including the Chicago Tribune, Coverstory and The X-Files Official Magazine. He lives in Oak Lawn, Illinois, with his wife, son, and the Millennium Bug, which he is still trying to exterminate from his PC. Certainly no self-proclaimed technowhiz, Erik prides himself on being "an average guy with the same concerns and questions about Y2K as everyone else. My job? To get answers to those questions, and pass them along to you." Techno file index Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 1999, Medford, Oregon USA