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On Saturday, Medford's air quality index had not recorded a 24-hour period of measurably "good" air for more than three weeks. {br class="hardreturn" /} Oregon Department of Environmental Quality data show the last full day of lung-preferred air was July 28, two days before the Stouts fire launched a smoke column into the sky that was visible from Medford and Eugene. Then, on Aug. 1, came two lightning-sparked fires that comprise the National Creek complex near Crater Lake. {br class="hardreturn" /} Smoke has flooded the Rogue Valley intermittently ever since. Medford's air quality has seen 12 days of "moderate" readings, five when it was "unhealthy for sensitive groups," four where it was downright "unhealthy," and one where it was "very unhealthy," data show. {br class="hardreturn" /} "We were good up until the fires started," says DEQ official Byron Peterson.{br class="hardreturn" /} DEQ data from the past five years shows that poor air quality is, unsurprisingly, more likely in Medford during the latter half of wildfire season in late July and August. The good news is that kind of prolonged air pollution has only presented itself in two of the past five years: 2015 and 2013, when levels shot up to unhealthy from the middle of July into the early days of August. {br class="hardreturn" /} "The Rogue Valley has long been a catch basin for smoke," says Oregon Department of Forestry spokesman Brian Ballou. "It's particularly bad when we are geographically surrounded by fires, which we are."{br class="hardreturn" /} The three-month period from June to August during 2013 and 2015 had one ingredient that primed the arid terrain for those fires: some of the warmest summer temperatures on record. {br class="hardreturn" /} From June through August 2013, Medford recorded an average temperature of 74 degrees — an average of daily high and low temperatures. National Weather Service meteorologist Ryan Sandler says it was the second-warmest stretch on record for those months in Medford. June through Aug. 20 of this year has seen an average of 76.7 degrees, so the record for the warmest summer in Medford could soon be broken.{br class="hardreturn" /} Summer 2014 currently is the record holder for hottest summer. The average temperature for that three-month period was 74.9 degrees.{br class="hardreturn" /} "If we finish warm (this year), we're going to have the three warmest summers in a row here," Sandler says. {br class="hardreturn" /} Low snowpack and little precipitation also contributed to 2015's fire-ready landscape across southwest Oregon.{br class="hardreturn" /} Whether this annual period of foul air will turn into a long-term trend is anyone's guess.{br class="hardreturn" /} "Every forecast, seasonal forecast, that they send out up to a year in advance is all showing probabilities for warmer-than-normal temperatures," Sandler says. {br class="hardreturn" /} Weather service officials say current climate models suggest that area snowpack will continue to melt earlier than it has in the past. {br class="hardreturn" /} "We can't say that it's the new normal for sure, but the dice are loaded for warmer conditions in the future and less snowpack in this area, and that is one ingredient," says meteorologist Shad Keene.{br class="hardreturn" /} Some area organizations that hold outdoor events during the summer say they don't have plans to make permanent adjustments to their summer offerings because of the smoke.{br class="hardreturn" /} "Nobody can predict what's going to happen," says Donna Briggs, Britt Festivals executive director. "We literally take it hour by hour here at Britt. That is going to be our philosophy."{br class="hardreturn" /} This year's smoke has not had a dramatic impact on ticket sales, she says, and much of the smoke had usually cleared by the time evening shows rolled around. {br class="hardreturn" /} "Ticket sales are solid. I think we lucked out," Briggs says. {br class="hardreturn" /} Mallory Pierce, Oregon Shakespeare Festival marketing and communications director, says the festival is not planning any changes for the 2016 outdoor season. Since the Stouts fire flared up at the end of July, OSF officials have been consistently monitoring the weather forecast and air quality in the hours leading up to shows. Smoky conditions prompted the cancellation of a Green Show and outdoor theater performance, but the schedule has been otherwise unaffected. {br class="hardreturn" /} "We monitor moment to moment during the performances because of the variable conditions," Pierce says, adding crew members continue to keep an eye on things backstage during the show. "We do everything we can to keep the show going."{br class="hardreturn" /} Ballou says there are currently no plans to get firefighters ready earlier for the 2016 season. But that could change if the warmer forecast endures. {br class="hardreturn" /} "We just have to deal with what we're being told, and what we're being told is this could be a longer-term trend," Ballou says. "It's an interesting topic for which there are few hard answers." {br class="hardreturn" /} Reach reporter Ryan Pfeil at 541-776-4468 or [email protected] . Follow him at www.twitter.com/ryanpfeil . {br class="hardreturn" /}