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Forum: changing climate Talk aimed at coping with weather shifts By PAUL FATTIG If you plan to attend a public forum on the changing climate Tuesday in Medford, please check your political agenda at the door, says Robert Horton. The environmental sociologist explained the conference is intended to focus on coping with -- not blaming someone for -- climate change in the Pacific Northwest, zeroing in on the Rogue Basin. About the session The Climate Impacts Group from the University of Washington will hold a public forum Tuesday in Medford. The free two-hour session will begin at 3 p.m. in the Smullin Center Auditorium, Rogue Valley Medical Center, 2825 E. Barnett Road. The group, headed by research scientist Philip Mote, will present findings included in a report that studied climate change in the Northwest. Released late last year, the report projects that the next 50 years will find an increase of 5 degrees in average temperatures, reduced winter snowpack, more winter rain and hotter and drier summers. The seminar is sponsored by the Natural Resources Committee of Jackson County, the Rogue Valley Council of Governments, and environmental, timber industry and agricultural groups in the Rogue Basin. "We know the climate is always changing -- it is never in a steady state," said Horton, 58, an adjunct professor at Southern Oregon University who is helping organize the forum. "It has always been evolving and changing." What is not known is what steps can be taken to prepare for the inevitable change, he said. "But, if we think about the questions, and put together some information, maybe we can come up with some answers for the Rogue Basin," he said. "We need to start discussing it now." For example, a couple of degrees increase in the base temperature could affect orchards, he said. It also would impact electrical demands for air conditioning during the summer, create more winter flooding and cause problems in the shallow aquifer which residential wells now tap into. "This will affect how we use water, how we recreate," he said. "There are a lot of things we need to be looking at now." The bottom line is that the climate will change and there is precious little humans can do about it. "We can't reverse it," he said, noting that the lion's share of climate change is part of Earth's natural cycle. "That's beyond the realm of human capabilities. It's going to occur whether we do anything or not. "But we can perhaps make it less of a problem for people" -- and for the environment, he added. Mother Nature may also reduce potential problems by kicking in control mechanisms. "If there is increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, plant growth increases and the assimilation of carbon dioxide increases," Horton explained. That's not to say human activity is not contributing to the climate change, he added. "But the trend now is to go toward global warming as if it's all human induced," he said. "It's part human induced, but it's also naturalistic." Evidence of an ever-changing climate can be seen in the fact that Earth has had at least four ice ages, he said. "When you look at dendrochronological (tree ring) studies right here in the Rogue Basin, you see tremendous variations of temperature and moisture," he said, noting that tree growth accurately captures climate changes over the centuries before the Industrial Age. "My personal concern is that we need to get a realistic view of the changes that are occurring and the causes behind them," he said. Horton has been working on large-scale environmental issues in the Northwest for some time. He recently finished working on the Southwest Oregon coho salmon recovery plan. He also has completed a study for the Army Corps of Engineers on the social effects of removing four dams on the Snake River. Although the public forum Tuesday is aimed at planners and policy makers, everyone is encouraged to attend. Today's Edition : News | Sports | Business | Weather | Tempo | Classifieds Mail Tribune Copyright � The Mail Tribune 2000, Medford, Oregon USA