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Experts dread another dry year Mail Tribune / Bob Pennell The southwest end of Emigrant Lake near Ashland seemed like a desert of cracked, dried ground on Monday. September marked the Rogue Valley's 11th consecutive month of below-average rainfall. The 12 months that ended Aug. 31 were the fourth driest on record in Medford. They say low moisture this winter could mean serious water shortages next summer By BILL KETTLER The signs of drought are easy to see: sun-baked mud at the bottom of reservoirs; oak leaves the color of brown-paper sacks; rocky creek bottoms interrupted by occasional warm puddles. September marked the 11th consecutive month of below-average rainfall in Southern Oregon. As the rainy season begins, water-watchers say the Rogue Valley needs at least average precipitation this winter to avoid serious water shortages next summer. "If we have a repeat of last winter, we'll be in drier straits," quipped Jackson County Watermaster Larry Menteer. Menteer said two winters of average and above-average rainfall before the dry spell started softened the effect of the fourth driest year in Medford's weather records. A second dry winter would amplify problems that only began to surface this summer. "Each year it gets worse," he said, recalling the three-year dry spell that ran from 1992 to 1994. The rain gauge at the Medford airport collected just 9.63 inches for the 12 months that ended Aug. 31, 51 percent of Medford's average annual precipitation of 18.86 inches. September added just .79 inches, slightly below the normal average of .86 inches. Menteer said rain during the last week of September raised stream flows a tiny bit, but a week of 90-degree temperatures quickly evaporated most of the rain that fell. Trees across the region are struggling in dry soils. Newly dead conifers' red-orange needles stand out among their green neighbors. Leaves on many white oaks have turned dull brown months before their fall color usually appears. Many madrones made few new leaves this year, and those leaves were smaller than normal, giving the trees a yellowish, sickly cast. "We may see more signs (of drought stress) next year," said Max Bennett, extension forester for the Southern Oregon Research and Extension Center. "Trees that get sick are more vulnerable to insects. They may be attacked this year, but the problem doesn't show up until next year, or a few years hence." Careful planning last spring helped the region survive the dry spell with relatively few serious problems, said Eric Dittmer, a professor in the environmental studies program at Southern Oregon University in Ashland. "We had about 50 agencies talking to each other," he said. "It started everything out on the right foot." Dittmer said irrigation districts used stored water in mountain reservoirs to meet the needs of farmers and ranchers, but the stored water may not be replenished in one winter. "Sometimes it takes three years to fill Howard Prairie and Hyatt (lakes)," he said. The fall-winter forecast from state climatologist George Taylor calls for average precipitation this winter, with only a few really wet days before mid-October. In remarks on the Oregon Climate Service's Web site, Taylor acknowledged his forecast for last winter "bombed." "But we were in good company," he wrote, "because no one foresaw a dry winter, let alone one of the driest of the last century. And we are still puzzled by what happened." Dittmer hopes Taylor's forecast hits the mark. "We're just crossing our fingers that we don't have another year like this." On the Web: See George Taylor's winter forecast for Oregon at: www.ocs.orst.edu Reach reporter Bill Kettler at 776-4492, or e-mail [email protected] Mail Tribune Home | Ottaway Newspapers, Inc. | Dow Jones & Co., Inc. | Privacy | Contact Us Copyright � 2001 Mail Tribune, Inc.