Forecast accuracy scoreboard
Every Tier 5 forecast (attention momentum + modality vectors) is snapshot daily and then retrospectively scored after 7+ days against actual mainstream-coverage delta for the topic. Same accountability we apply to pollsters, applied to ourselves.
Total snapshots
200
Scored (≥7 days old)
165
Confirmed
15
Missed
150
Accuracy %
9.1%
Recent snapshots
| Date | Topic | Trend | Momentum | Top modality | Articles before / after | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -13.4% | urgency (4.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-03 | scotus | FALLING | -19.4% | urgency (5.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-03 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | -4.9% | urgency (2.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-03 | direction-of-country | FLAT | +3.9% | hope (5.0) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-03 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -43.5% | fear (1.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-02 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -44.5% | urgency (3.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-02 | scotus | FALLING | -58.5% | urgency (5.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-02 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -13.0% | certainty (1.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-02 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -30.7% | hope (4.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-02 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -40.5% | urgency (3.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-01 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -42.4% | urgency (2.8) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-01 | scotus | FALLING | -45.2% | urgency (10.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-01 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +50.6% | doubt (2.2) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-01 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -52.5% | urgency (3.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-09-01 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -32.4% | urgency (4.6) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-31 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -20.2% | urgency (4.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-31 | scotus | FALLING | -31.7% | urgency (6.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-31 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +29.1% | certainty (1.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-31 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -32.4% | urgency (2.9) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-31 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -30.1% | urgency (2.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-30 | flock-cameras | FLAT | -8.9% | urgency (3.9) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-30 | scotus | FALLING | -23.9% | urgency (4.8) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-30 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +13.8% | doubt (2.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-30 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -25.1% | hope (4.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-30 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -25.6% | urgency (2.0) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-29 | flock-cameras | FLAT | +7.2% | urgency (3.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-29 | scotus | FLAT | +8.5% | urgency (3.8) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-29 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +34.1% | doubt (2.6) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-29 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -9.8% | urgency (3.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-29 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -12.6% | certainty (1.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-28 | flock-cameras | RISING | +22.5% | urgency (3.9) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-28 | scotus | RISING | +20.3% | urgency (8.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-28 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +60.9% | urgency (3.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-28 | direction-of-country | FLAT | +5.8% | certainty (3.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-28 | presidential-approval | FLAT | +4.0% | urgency (4.2) | pending | pending |
| 2026-08-27 | flock-cameras | RISING | +78.8% | urgency (3.2) | 115 → 132 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-27 | scotus | RISING | +29.7% | urgency (14.5) | 128 → 113 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-27 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +148.9% | doubt (2.6) | 233 → 233 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-27 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -13.3% | certainty (3.3) | 486 → 499 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-27 | presidential-approval | RISING | +11.4% | urgency (2.9) | 412 → 513 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-26 | flock-cameras | RISING | +58.1% | urgency (3.8) | 118 → 128 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-26 | scotus | RISING | +15.0% | certainty (3.6) | 125 → 115 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-26 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +207.7% | doubt (2.5) | 246 → 220 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-26 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -14.3% | certainty (3.0) | 488 → 496 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-26 | presidential-approval | RISING | +36.2% | urgency (2.5) | 452 → 491 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-25 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -23.6% | urgency (4.6) | 107 → 138 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-25 | scotus | FALLING | -25.9% | urgency (4.1) | 117 → 125 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-25 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +76.5% | doubt (3.9) | 229 → 230 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-25 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -34.0% | certainty (4.4) | 469 → 523 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-25 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -26.8% | fear (2.1) | 450 → 479 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-24 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -71.1% | urgency (3.1) | 105 → 139 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-24 | scotus | FALLING | -32.0% | urgency (8.1) | 120 → 128 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-24 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +12.1% | doubt (2.6) | 223 → 233 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-24 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -37.2% | certainty (4.4) | 478 → 499 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-24 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -43.9% | urgency (5.1) | 463 → 461 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-23 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -80.5% | urgency (4.8) | 112 → 127 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-23 | scotus | FALLING | -40.9% | urgency (7.0) | 112 → 137 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-23 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -32.4% | doubt (3.3) | 217 → 236 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-23 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -26.0% | urgency (5.6) | 472 → 496 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-23 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -69.4% | urgency (4.8) | 471 → 458 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-22 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -58.6% | urgency (6.8) | 123 → 119 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-22 | scotus | FALLING | -47.5% | urgency (6.3) | 111 → 141 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-22 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -15.6% | certainty (8.5) | 224 → 231 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-22 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -20.5% | hope (3.4) | 463 → 496 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-22 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -63.7% | urgency (3.5) | 474 → 459 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-21 | flock-cameras | FLAT | -7.2% | urgency (3.6) | 126 → 115 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-21 | scotus | FLAT | +5.2% | urgency (36.1) | 116 → 134 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-21 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +22.8% | urgency (2.4) | 237 → 224 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-21 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -15.6% | certainty (4.0) | 461 → 490 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-21 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -34.5% | urgency (3.5) | 487 → 429 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-20 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -21.2% | urgency (3.8) | 130 → 115 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-20 | scotus | FALLING | -19.3% | urgency (10.7) | 124 → 128 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-20 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +23.7% | urgency (2.3) | 229 → 233 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-20 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -16.4% | hope (5.9) | 432 → 486 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-20 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -18.1% | urgency (4.4) | 483 → 412 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-19 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -56.7% | urgency (3.5) | 136 → 118 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-19 | scotus | FALLING | -67.9% | urgency (5.0) | 120 → 125 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-19 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +41.4% | doubt (3.3) | 215 → 246 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-19 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -10.2% | urgency (5.0) | 419 → 487 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-19 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -22.9% | urgency (3.5) | 450 → 452 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-18 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -63.5% | urgency (2.7) | 130 → 107 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-18 | scotus | FALLING | -67.2% | urgency (14.6) | 114 → 117 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-18 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | -5.9% | anger (10.0) | 222 → 229 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-18 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -17.3% | urgency (7.5) | 388 → 469 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-18 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -44.3% | urgency (4.5) | 450 → 450 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-17 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -56.1% | urgency (3.4) | 141 → 105 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-17 | scotus | FALLING | -58.8% | certainty (4.2) | 111 → 118 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-17 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | -9.5% | doubt (1.7) | 222 → 219 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-17 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -33.3% | urgency (4.8) | 376 → 478 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-17 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -42.7% | urgency (3.2) | 432 → 463 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-16 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -30.9% | urgency (3.6) | 136 → 112 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-16 | scotus | FALLING | -32.8% | urgency (3.4) | 111 → 112 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-16 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -25.4% | doubt (1.8) | 224 → 215 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-16 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -26.6% | hope (4.5) | 373 → 472 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-16 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -33.9% | urgency (3.6) | 419 → 470 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-15 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -26.6% | urgency (3.1) | 131 → 123 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-15 | scotus | FALLING | -33.2% | urgency (7.8) | 111 → 111 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-15 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -33.2% | doubt (2.4) | 230 → 222 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-15 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -31.8% | urgency (4.8) | 376 → 461 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-15 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -32.7% | urgency (3.1) | 424 → 473 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-14 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -22.7% | urgency (4.1) | 130 → 125 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-14 | scotus | FALLING | -26.5% | urgency (33.8) | 103 → 116 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-14 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -42.0% | urgency (4.4) | 229 → 237 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-14 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -23.5% | urgency (5.0) | 375 → 459 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-14 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -31.0% | urgency (4.0) | 438 → 486 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-13 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -13.6% | urgency (3.8) | 125 → 130 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-13 | scotus | FALLING | -17.6% | urgency (7.7) | 97 → 123 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-13 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -18.6% | doubt (1.5) | 237 → 227 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-13 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -11.2% | urgency (3.1) | 394 → 429 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-13 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -25.3% | urgency (2.5) | 450 → 482 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-12 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -18.8% | urgency (3.1) | 109 → 136 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-12 | scotus | FALLING | -29.2% | urgency (5.0) | 100 → 120 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-12 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +42.6% | doubt (1.8) | 240 → 215 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-12 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -18.1% | hope (3.1) | 387 → 418 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-12 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -24.0% | urgency (2.9) | 461 → 449 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-11 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -34.6% | urgency (3.9) | 120 → 130 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-11 | scotus | FALLING | -44.9% | urgency (11.4) | 100 → 112 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-11 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +76.3% | certainty (1.4) | 236 → 221 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-11 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -20.9% | urgency (5.3) | 407 → 387 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-11 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -26.0% | urgency (2.7) | 465 → 447 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-10 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -43.2% | urgency (3.3) | 110 → 141 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-10 | scotus | FALLING | -42.4% | urgency (4.6) | 97 → 111 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-10 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +10.2% | hope (1.5) | 248 → 222 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-10 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -27.0% | certainty (3.9) | 408 → 376 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-10 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -28.5% | urgency (2.4) | 486 → 432 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-09 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -34.0% | urgency (3.1) | 116 → 136 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-09 | scotus | FALLING | -27.8% | urgency (5.1) | 95 → 110 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-09 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -19.7% | urgency (2.8) | 258 → 224 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-09 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -30.2% | certainty (5.1) | 402 → 373 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-09 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -29.1% | urgency (3.0) | 506 → 418 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-08 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -20.1% | urgency (4.7) | 120 → 131 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-08 | scotus | FALLING | -29.4% | urgency (7.2) | 93 → 110 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-08 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +40.7% | urgency (2.5) | 248 → 230 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-08 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -27.8% | hope (5.0) | 407 → 376 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-08 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -32.6% | urgency (3.9) | 501 → 423 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-07 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -16.2% | urgency (3.6) | 119 → 130 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-07 | scotus | FALLING | -16.3% | urgency (12.6) | 89 → 103 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-07 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +164.9% | certainty (0.9) | 253 → 229 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-07 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -6.8% | certainty (4.2) | 407 → 375 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-07 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -28.8% | urgency (3.6) | 481 → 438 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-06 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -13.2% | urgency (2.5) | 118 → 125 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-06 | scotus | FLAT | -9.9% | urgency (6.8) | 88 → 97 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-06 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +118.1% | doubt (1.3) | 277 → 237 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-06 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -0.7% | urgency (4.4) | 422 → 393 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-06 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -22.6% | urgency (3.4) | 484 → 449 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-05 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -17.1% | urgency (3.6) | 132 → 108 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-05 | scotus | FALLING | -10.8% | urgency (3.9) | 87 → 99 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-05 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +44.5% | doubt (3.9) | 289 → 237 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-05 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -7.1% | certainty (3.3) | 425 → 386 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-05 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -19.7% | urgency (3.7) | 496 → 456 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-03 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -39.5% | urgency (3.2) | 143 → 110 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-03 | scotus | FALLING | -45.7% | urgency (12.0) | 87 → 97 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-03 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +39.4% | certainty (1.2) | 283 → 248 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-03 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -39.4% | hope (2.8) | 404 → 408 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-03 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -40.7% | urgency (2.2) | 484 → 486 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-02 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -31.8% | urgency (3.6) | 144 → 116 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-02 | scotus | FALLING | -40.2% | urgency (3.5) | 86 → 95 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-02 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +15.5% | certainty (1.2) | 279 → 258 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-08-02 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -23.8% | hope (2.5) | 403 → 401 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-02 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -37.0% | urgency (2.8) | 463 → 505 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-01 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -27.1% | urgency (3.1) | 144 → 120 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-01 | scotus | FALLING | -35.8% | urgency (8.3) | 87 → 93 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-01 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +6.3% | doubt (1.2) | 289 → 248 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-08-01 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -19.3% | urgency (2.9) | 409 → 408 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-08-01 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -27.7% | urgency (3.4) | 465 → 501 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-31 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -25.1% | urgency (2.7) | 145 → 119 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-31 | scotus | FALLING | -16.6% | urgency (6.6) | 101 → 89 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-31 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +9.5% | certainty (1.3) | 295 → 253 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-07-31 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -15.9% | urgency (4.7) | 406 → 407 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-31 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -16.2% | urgency (3.2) | 453 → 481 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-30 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -15.7% | urgency (3.3) | 140 → 117 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-30 | scotus | FLAT | +8.0% | urgency (10.3) | 111 → 88 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-07-30 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +6.6% | certainty (1.7) | 293 → 277 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-07-30 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -7.6% | hope (5.5) | 401 → 422 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-07-30 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -16.8% | urgency (3.3) | 454 → 483 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-29 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -21.9% | urgency (3.2) | 129 → 132 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-29 | scotus | FLAT | -8.8% | urgency (7.1) | 113 → 87 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-07-29 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +14.4% | dread (0.8) | 294 → 289 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-07-29 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -9.1% | urgency (5.3) | 399 → 425 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-07-29 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -21.6% | urgency (4.2) | 438 → 496 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-28 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -34.6% | urgency (3.3) | 131 → 137 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-28 | scotus | FALLING | -34.8% | urgency (7.4) | 111 → 92 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-28 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +24.4% | dread (0.8) | 287 → 295 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-07-28 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -24.7% | hope (2.9) | 416 → 411 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-28 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -27.7% | urgency (2.6) | 418 → 503 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-27 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -16.8% | urgency (4.9) | 131 → 142 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-27 | scotus | FALLING | -45.4% | urgency (4.0) | 119 → 87 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-27 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -12.7% | urgency (1.5) | 287 → 280 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-27 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -39.1% | certainty (2.2) | 428 → 404 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-27 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -34.4% | certainty (2.4) | 404 → 482 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-26 | flock-cameras | RISING | +61.6% | urgency (3.3) | 134 → 143 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-07-26 | scotus | FALLING | -33.3% | urgency (2.4) | 123 → 86 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-26 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -39.4% | urgency (1.1) | 288 → 278 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-26 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -38.2% | hope (3.9) | 436 → 401 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-26 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -34.7% | urgency (3.3) | 409 → 461 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-25 | flock-cameras | RISING | +1330.6% | urgency (3.1) | 130 → 144 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-07-25 | scotus | FALLING | -27.0% | urgency (4.4) | 126 → 87 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-25 | israel-iran-strikes | FALLING | -54.6% | urgency (1.3) | 280 → 288 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-25 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -29.7% | hope (4.7) | 423 → 407 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-07-25 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -30.8% | urgency (3.7) | 404 → 463 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
Scoring rules: A "rising" prediction is confirmed if mainstream-article count for the topic grows ≥50% in the 7 days after vs the 7 days before the snapshot. "Falling" is confirmed when count drops ≥33%. "Flat" is confirmed when the ratio stays between 0.67× and 1.5×.