Forecast accuracy scoreboard
Every Tier 5 forecast (attention momentum + modality vectors) is snapshot daily and then retrospectively scored after 7+ days against actual mainstream-coverage delta for the topic. Same accountability we apply to pollsters, applied to ourselves.
Total snapshots
200
Scored (≥7 days old)
160
Confirmed
19
Missed
141
Accuracy %
11.9%
Recent snapshots
| Date | Topic | Trend | Momentum | Top modality | Articles before / after | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -37.7% | urgency (3.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-19 | scotus | FALLING | -43.9% | urgency (12.0) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-19 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +119.7% | urgency (3.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-19 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -20.7% | certainty (3.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-19 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -24.1% | urgency (2.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-18 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -31.1% | urgency (3.2) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-18 | scotus | FALLING | -35.6% | urgency (9.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-18 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +196.2% | urgency (3.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-18 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -33.1% | urgency (3.8) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-18 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -28.4% | urgency (4.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-17 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -26.5% | urgency (3.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-17 | scotus | FALLING | -20.5% | urgency (6.8) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-17 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +157.4% | urgency (2.9) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-17 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -4.2% | certainty (3.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-17 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -28.3% | urgency (4.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-16 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -22.5% | urgency (3.0) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-16 | scotus | FALLING | -12.5% | urgency (30.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-16 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +117.1% | urgency (2.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-16 | direction-of-country | FLAT | +0.3% | urgency (3.2) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-16 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -26.0% | urgency (3.7) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-15 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -21.1% | urgency (3.2) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-15 | scotus | FALLING | -18.3% | urgency (13.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-15 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +72.2% | urgency (2.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-15 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -7.7% | urgency (7.6) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-15 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -27.4% | urgency (3.0) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-14 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -23.8% | urgency (3.6) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-14 | scotus | FALLING | -24.3% | urgency (3.6) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-14 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +75.3% | urgency (2.2) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-14 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -23.4% | hope (6.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-14 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -29.4% | urgency (4.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-13 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -32.1% | urgency (3.9) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-13 | scotus | FALLING | -41.0% | urgency (3.0) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-13 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +150.7% | urgency (2.8) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-13 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -22.2% | urgency (2.3) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-13 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -29.6% | urgency (3.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-12 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -37.6% | urgency (3.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-12 | scotus | FALLING | -43.4% | urgency (4.5) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-12 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +97.8% | urgency (2.6) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-12 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -30.1% | urgency (5.4) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-12 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -31.0% | urgency (4.1) | pending | pending |
| 2026-10-11 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -36.6% | urgency (3.7) | 141 → 129 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-11 | scotus | FALLING | -40.5% | urgency (3.2) | 111 → 75 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-11 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +72.3% | urgency (1.9) | 175 → 169 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-11 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -17.9% | urgency (6.7) | 282 → 294 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-11 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -33.0% | urgency (3.7) | 462 → 501 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-10 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -32.4% | urgency (3.3) | 139 → 131 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-10 | scotus | FALLING | -40.0% | urgency (3.4) | 111 → 72 | ✓ predicted fall confirmed |
| 2026-10-10 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +80.9% | doubt (1.6) | 169 → 180 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-10 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -20.5% | hope (4.5) | 287 → 292 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-10 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -26.6% | urgency (5.2) | 457 → 497 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-09 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -26.2% | urgency (3.6) | 134 → 143 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-09 | scotus | FALLING | -33.4% | urgency (15.5) | 108 → 76 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-09 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +179.4% | doubt (1.6) | 161 → 185 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-09 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -22.5% | urgency (4.4) | 297 → 288 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-09 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -24.1% | urgency (3.6) | 472 → 500 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-08 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -21.8% | urgency (3.1) | 134 → 145 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-08 | scotus | FALLING | -27.2% | urgency (3.2) | 99 → 86 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-08 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +250.0% | doubt (1.9) | 169 → 190 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-08 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -19.8% | certainty (2.6) | 292 → 303 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-08 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -17.2% | urgency (4.1) | 486 → 501 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-07 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -22.5% | urgency (3.3) | 124 → 152 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-07 | scotus | FALLING | -20.1% | certainty (2.4) | 90 → 93 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-07 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +172.4% | urgency (2.0) | 164 → 188 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-07 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -21.4% | urgency (6.5) | 293 → 295 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-07 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -20.3% | urgency (4.3) | 475 → 481 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-06 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -34.9% | urgency (3.4) | 137 → 150 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-06 | scotus | FALLING | -29.3% | urgency (15.4) | 98 → 92 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-06 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +79.3% | urgency (1.3) | 159 → 193 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-06 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -29.5% | certainty (4.9) | 298 → 281 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-06 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -30.7% | urgency (2.7) | 490 → 474 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-05 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -37.7% | urgency (3.4) | 142 → 142 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-05 | scotus | FALLING | -40.4% | urgency (11.1) | 87 → 106 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-05 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +70.6% | urgency (1.8) | 174 → 177 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-05 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -37.8% | hope (3.6) | 302 → 283 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-05 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -35.3% | urgency (3.1) | 483 → 473 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-04 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -29.9% | urgency (3.4) | 137 → 139 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-04 | scotus | FALLING | -34.6% | urgency (2.3) | 85 → 111 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-04 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +41.7% | urgency (1.7) | 180 → 174 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-04 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -30.6% | urgency (4.1) | 307 → 279 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-04 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -32.6% | urgency (3.5) | 489 → 460 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-03 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -25.2% | urgency (2.6) | 144 → 139 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-03 | scotus | FALLING | -21.6% | certainty (3.8) | 87 → 112 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-03 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +29.7% | urgency (1.8) | 185 → 167 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-10-03 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -28.6% | hope (2.8) | 303 → 287 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-03 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -23.2% | urgency (3.3) | 489 → 457 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-02 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -25.9% | urgency (4.1) | 131 → 134 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-02 | scotus | FALLING | -11.2% | urgency (21.5) | 97 → 107 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-02 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +8.3% | urgency (2.8) | 193 → 161 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-10-02 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -38.8% | urgency (3.8) | 298 → 296 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-02 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -24.1% | urgency (3.4) | 483 → 473 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-01 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -22.2% | urgency (4.4) | 133 → 134 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-01 | scotus | FALLING | -18.9% | urgency (7.8) | 97 → 98 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-01 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +3.0% | urgency (2.3) | 193 → 169 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-10-01 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -25.9% | urgency (4.3) | 306 → 292 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-10-01 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -27.1% | urgency (3.4) | 503 → 486 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-30 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -24.6% | urgency (3.2) | 142 → 124 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-30 | scotus | FALLING | -24.9% | urgency (8.1) | 102 → 90 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-30 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +72.3% | urgency (2.7) | 212 → 164 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-30 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -11.9% | urgency (4.0) | 325 → 292 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-30 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -15.3% | urgency (4.0) | 529 → 475 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-29 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -29.4% | urgency (4.2) | 134 → 137 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-29 | scotus | FALLING | -30.1% | urgency (6.3) | 89 → 98 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-29 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +57.8% | doubt (2.5) | 225 → 159 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-29 | direction-of-country | RISING | +23.6% | urgency (4.4) | 332 → 298 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-29 | presidential-approval | FLAT | -0.6% | urgency (2.8) | 549 → 490 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-28 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -27.7% | urgency (3.2) | 141 → 142 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-28 | scotus | FALLING | -20.5% | urgency (11.0) | 90 → 87 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-28 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +72.0% | doubt (1.7) | 221 → 174 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-28 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -5.7% | hope (2.9) | 347 → 302 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-28 | presidential-approval | RISING | +16.7% | urgency (2.8) | 575 → 483 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-27 | flock-cameras | FLAT | +1.4% | urgency (3.3) | 154 → 137 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-27 | scotus | FLAT | -1.6% | urgency (7.4) | 88 → 85 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-27 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +73.0% | urgency (2.9) | 221 → 180 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-27 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -36.6% | urgency (3.6) | 371 → 307 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-27 | presidential-approval | RISING | +79.3% | urgency (3.7) | 593 → 490 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-26 | flock-cameras | RISING | +96.4% | urgency (3.8) | 146 → 144 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-26 | scotus | RISING | +27.1% | urgency (7.7) | 92 → 88 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-26 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +104.4% | doubt (2.6) | 223 → 185 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-26 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -20.5% | urgency (6.7) | 386 → 304 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-26 | presidential-approval | RISING | +138.5% | urgency (3.4) | 610 → 490 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-25 | flock-cameras | RISING | +191.6% | urgency (3.4) | 159 → 131 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-25 | scotus | RISING | +67.5% | urgency (16.3) | 81 → 98 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-25 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +171.0% | doubt (2.6) | 217 → 192 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-25 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -5.8% | urgency (3.1) | 409 → 298 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-25 | presidential-approval | RISING | +100.0% | urgency (4.0) | 642 → 482 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-24 | flock-cameras | RISING | +131.9% | urgency (3.7) | 156 → 132 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-24 | scotus | RISING | +67.8% | urgency (6.4) | 80 → 98 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-24 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +157.6% | doubt (1.2) | 217 → 193 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-24 | direction-of-country | RISING | +15.7% | urgency (6.1) | 430 → 307 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-24 | presidential-approval | RISING | +100.0% | urgency (3.5) | 647 → 504 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-23 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -16.8% | urgency (3.3) | 153 → 142 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-23 | scotus | RISING | +24.5% | certainty (1.7) | 89 → 103 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-23 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +42.9% | urgency (2.2) | 202 → 212 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-23 | direction-of-country | FLAT | +1.9% | certainty (3.9) | 432 → 326 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-23 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -100.0% | urgency (2.9) | 697 → 529 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-22 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -74.7% | urgency (3.9) | 155 → 134 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-22 | scotus | FALLING | -54.8% | urgency (5.4) | 100 → 88 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-22 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +7.9% | urgency (5.0) | 193 → 224 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-22 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -17.2% | certainty (3.3) | 447 → 331 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-22 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -100.0% | urgency (2.9) | 680 → 550 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-21 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -84.8% | urgency (3.2) | 156 → 141 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-21 | scotus | FALLING | -81.1% | urgency (3.9) | 113 → 90 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-21 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +24.8% | hope (1.6) | 195 → 221 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-21 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -55.4% | urgency (5.7) | 449 → 346 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-21 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -100.0% | urgency (2.9) | 680 → 574 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-20 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -87.9% | urgency (3.6) | 151 → 154 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-20 | scotus | FALLING | -79.2% | urgency (18.4) | 111 → 87 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-20 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +75.3% | urgency (3.2) | 204 → 222 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-20 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -43.5% | urgency (6.3) | 456 → 370 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-20 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -91.1% | urgency (2.9) | 668 → 592 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-19 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -56.3% | urgency (4.6) | 147 → 146 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-19 | scotus | FALLING | -58.4% | urgency (6.3) | 103 → 91 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-19 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +135.7% | urgency (2.1) | 212 → 224 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-19 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -26.2% | urgency (3.8) | 449 → 386 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-19 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -37.2% | urgency (2.9) | 667 → 609 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-18 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -25.4% | urgency (4.8) | 160 → 158 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-18 | scotus | FALLING | -25.6% | urgency (3.6) | 106 → 80 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-18 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +85.6% | doubt (1.7) | 242 → 215 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-18 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -7.6% | urgency (7.4) | 472 → 407 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-18 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -27.1% | urgency (3.5) | 664 → 637 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-17 | flock-cameras | FALLING | -24.9% | urgency (3.7) | 159 → 155 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-17 | scotus | FLAT | -7.1% | urgency (11.8) | 106 → 80 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-17 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +96.5% | doubt (1.5) | 245 → 217 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-17 | direction-of-country | FLAT | -1.0% | hope (4.2) | 477 → 430 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-17 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -56.6% | urgency (4.5) | 628 → 646 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-16 | flock-cameras | FLAT | -9.8% | urgency (4.0) | 159 → 152 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-16 | scotus | FLAT | -0.1% | urgency (3.3) | 94 → 89 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-16 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +166.7% | doubt (1.4) | 252 → 201 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-16 | direction-of-country | FLAT | +0.4% | urgency (3.2) | 495 → 431 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-16 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -41.8% | urgency (3.5) | 553 → 694 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-15 | flock-cameras | RISING | +22.1% | urgency (3.4) | 165 → 155 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-15 | scotus | RISING | +23.7% | urgency (5.4) | 85 → 100 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-15 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +77.2% | doubt (1.7) | 256 → 193 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-15 | direction-of-country | RISING | +19.4% | certainty (5.0) | 484 → 447 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-15 | presidential-approval | RISING | +16.2% | urgency (4.4) | 528 → 679 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-14 | flock-cameras | RISING | +44.8% | urgency (3.4) | 146 → 156 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-14 | scotus | RISING | +65.8% | urgency (12.4) | 75 → 114 | ✓ predicted rise confirmed |
| 2026-09-14 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +16.5% | doubt (1.7) | 237 → 195 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-14 | direction-of-country | RISING | +34.5% | urgency (4.2) | 465 → 450 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-14 | presidential-approval | RISING | +99.4% | urgency (3.0) | 466 → 681 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-13 | flock-cameras | RISING | +64.9% | urgency (4.7) | 144 → 150 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-13 | scotus | RISING | +165.4% | urgency (2.9) | 82 → 111 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-13 | israel-iran-strikes | FLAT | +4.3% | doubt (1.5) | 231 → 204 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-13 | direction-of-country | RISING | +37.9% | hope (3.2) | 451 → 451 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-13 | presidential-approval | RISING | +241.5% | urgency (2.3) | 456 → 664 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-12 | flock-cameras | RISING | +25.5% | urgency (4.4) | 151 → 146 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-12 | scotus | RISING | +38.4% | urgency (7.8) | 93 → 102 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-12 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +62.6% | anger (1.5) | 228 → 212 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-12 | direction-of-country | FLAT | +6.0% | urgency (4.5) | 465 → 445 | ✓ flat confirmed |
| 2026-09-12 | presidential-approval | RISING | +163.9% | urgency (3.6) | 448 → 663 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-11 | flock-cameras | RISING | +76.5% | urgency (3.1) | 135 → 161 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-11 | scotus | FALLING | -23.7% | urgency (9.5) | 104 → 106 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-11 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +94.3% | doubt (2.8) | 212 → 241 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-11 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -31.8% | certainty (4.0) | 443 → 471 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-11 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -25.6% | urgency (4.5) | 445 → 660 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-10 | flock-cameras | RISING | +83.9% | urgency (1.7) | 148 → 159 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-10 | scotus | FALLING | -13.8% | urgency (7.8) | 114 → 106 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-10 | israel-iran-strikes | RISING | +37.5% | urgency (1.6) | 208 → 245 | ✗ predicted rise missed |
| 2026-09-10 | direction-of-country | FALLING | -63.6% | urgency (5.4) | 447 → 475 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
| 2026-09-10 | presidential-approval | FALLING | -76.5% | urgency (2.8) | 457 → 620 | ✗ predicted fall missed |
Scoring rules: A "rising" prediction is confirmed if mainstream-article count for the topic grows ≥50% in the 7 days after vs the 7 days before the snapshot. "Falling" is confirmed when count drops ≥33%. "Flat" is confirmed when the ratio stays between 0.67× and 1.5×.